Description
This page contains the results for the effects of temperature on key
movements. As a reminder for how temperature is included in the model,
temperature has an influence on every upstream movement and every
movement into tributaries. The effect of temperature is modeled
separately for winter/spring (January-May) and for summer/fall
(June-December). Temperature parameters are origin-specific within DPS
boundaries, and are shared between origins of the same DPS outside of
DPS boundaries. On this page, I will focus only on how temperature
affects overshoot and movements into tributaries, and focus only on the
summer/fall temperature effect, as this is when upstream transitions are
primarily occuring (and therefore, when the risk of overshoot is
highest).
Simulation steps
For each dataset (combination of DPS and rear type), the following
steps were run:
- Extract the median covariate values experienced by all fish in the
dataset (for spill window, winter spill days, and temperature). These
median values are used to estimate the probability of movement, except
for the one that is being plotted.
- Create a sequence of temperature values from -2 SD to +2 SD around
the mean
- Evaluate the probability of movement at each of those temperature
values.
If a tributary has both a hatchery and natural origin population,
they are shown on the same plot. The bubble plots show the observed
proportion of that movement at each temperature.
NOTE: You’ll note that for overshoot movements, the data
consistently seems to underestimate the proportion of fish that are
overshooting for origins that are between Bonneville and McNary Dam.
This is once again related to the issue of detection efficiency in the
Deschutes. Many of the fish that appear to overshoot from the data are
actually estimated to have dipped into the Deschutes River first by the
model, which assumes that these detections were missed.
Temperature vs. Overshoot
Middle Columbia
Effect of temperature on overshoot for Deschutes
River Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot for John Day
River Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot for
Fifteenmile Creek Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot for Umatilla
River Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot of Priest
Rapids Dam for Yakima River Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot of Ice Harbor
Dam for Yakima River Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot of Priest
Rapids Dam for Walla Walla River Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot of Ice Harbor
Dam for Walla Walla River Steelhead.
Upper Columbia
Effect of temperature on overshoot for Wenatchee
River Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on overshoot for Entiat
River Steelhead.
Snake River
Effect of temperature on overshoot for Tucannon
River Steelhead.
Temperature vs. moving into the Deschutes
For all of these plots, I am showing the data only for years where
the Deschutes River had a detection efficiency correction (run years
13/14 through 18/19). Remember that temperature responses are shared
amongst fish from the same DPS when they are outside DPS boundaries, but
are origin-specific within DPS boundaries - hence, why I show this
movement for Snake River and Upper Columbia fish in the aggregate, and
then for individual Middle Columbia origins.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for Snake River DPS Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for Upper Columbia River DPS Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for Deschutes River DPS Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for John Day River DPS Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for Fifteenmile Creek DPS Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for Umatilla River DPS Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for Yakima River DPS Steelhead.
Effect of temperature on moving into the
Deschutes for Walla Walla River DPS Steelhead.